China–ASEANEngagementbyDr.MingjiangLi

Introduction

mong policy practitioners and research analysts who are interested in geopolitics in the Asia/Indo-Pacific region, there is a prevalent view that China has been significantly expanding its influence at the expense of the United States and its allies. Many observers note that the growth of Beijing’s geopolitical clout has been particularly salient in Southeast Asia. The region now has become a major target for major-power rivalry, involving China, the U.S., Japan, Australia, India, and European countries. This paper attempts to address a major question: how did China engage with ASEAN countries in the past few decades? On top of this central question, we will also explore the implications of China–ASEAN engagement for the relations between European countries and Southeast Asia. These issues are important for a number of considerations. First, Asian regional affairs analysts predominantly agree that China’s influence has increased significantly in Southeast Asia over the past 20 years. The State of Southeast Asia surveys, conducted annually since 2019 by ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore in recent years, suggest that China emerged as the most influential power in the strategic, political, and economic arenas in the region.1 The Lowy Institute Asia Power Index 2023 also shows that China’s influence in Southeast Asia has surpassed that of the U.S. in terms of economic cooperation, defense networks, diplomatic ties, and cultural influence.2 These observations highlight a natural puzzle: How did China establish such a high level of strategic clout in the region? What strategic, tactical, and policy approaches did China adopt? What are the different regional states’ responses to the Chinese initiatives? How do the domestic socio-political and economic contexts of these countries shape the regional states’ responses?