ThinkingtheUnthinkable:EastAsiaWithouttheUS

“The old order is dying, and the new one is struggling to be born. In this interregnum, morbid symptoms appear.”[1] This somber prediction made by Antonio Gramsci some 90 years ago is recapturing our attention these days. Morbid symptoms are everywhere, and the global order which the US miraculously created following the end of the Second World War is vanishing in disruptive fashion. The intensification of the US-China hegemonic rivalry is plunging the world into an abyss of uncertainty, both geopolitically and geoeconomically. The Westphalian concept of sovereignty and the United Nations Charter, which enshrine the inviolability of sovereignty and territory, are in tatters, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrates.

Another noticeable symptom revealed in this interregnum is the relative decline of American power and status in East Asia, precipitating various conjectures on the future of the US in the region, including the idea of an “East Asia without the US.” Such an idea was unthinkable in the past precisely because the American presence was so domineering and beneficial to many countries in the region. Now, “thinking the unthinkable” has emerged as a new narrative among intellectuals in East Asian countries. This essay addresses the convoluted dynamics of the new narratives from an East Asian (South Korean) perspective.