TheProspectsofPragmatismbetweenBeijingandTaipei–ViennaEdition

On Wednesday, February 28th, 2024, Global Neighbours hosted a dinner with Prof. Gu Xuewu, Director of the Centre for Global Studies at the University of Bonn and Global Neighbours Advisory Board Member, at Zum Schwarzen Kameel in Vienna, Austria.

This event was an additional gathering in response to the strong interest in Global Neighbours’ recent luncheon on the same topic in Berlin.

Following the elections in Taiwan, a series of commentators predicted an increased probability of a military operation in the Taiwan Strait. Prof. Gu, however, raised a set of arguments against the likelihood of a large-scale conflict. The election results made it clear that most Taiwanese voters oppose any move towards a declaration of independence. Given the current state of mutual (military) deterrence by China, Taiwan, and the US, an actual invasion would come at very high costs. In addition, Prof. Gu stressed that the success of realizing the “Chinese Dream”, a loosely defined vision of national rejuvenation, takes precedence over any large-scale military efforts against Taiwan.

In the subsequent discussion, the attendees also discussed current developments, such as China’s economic outlook, the international energy market, and the future of EU–China relations.

Organizer: Global Neighbours GmbH/e.V.
Guest Speaker: Prof. Gu Xuewu
Date & Location: 28 February 2024 at Zum Schwarzen Kameel, Vienna