Fewerandolder–butsmarter?RainerMünzondemographicchangeinEuropeandEastAsia

Never before have people in Europe and East Asia lived as long as they do today, and fewer children are being born there than at almost any point in modern history. Both regions are ageing rapidly, and in many countries the native population has already begun to decline. On September 29, the Global Neighbours Breakfast Club explored how societies are responding to profound demographic change. The discussion was led by Prof. Rainer Münz, one of Europe's leading experts on demography and migration, who advised European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on these issues from 2015 to 2019. Today, he advises the Commission's Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs on migration foresight and has been a member of the Austrian government's Expert Council on Integration since 2012.

Participants of the Global Neighbours Breakfast Club with Prof. Rainer Münz (Complexity Science Hub Vienna), Vienna, September 29, 2026

Global Neighbours CEO Siddharth Chatterjee opened the morning with a comparison that captured the scale of the issue. In the mid-twentieth century, Sweden and Kenya had populations of similar size; today, Kenya's population is several times larger and far younger. Without investment in human capital in Africa, he argued, a lack of jobs will continue to drive migration. The current development model, in his view, is no longer working.

An age of extremes

Prof. Münz described the present as an age of extremes. Worldwide, women have on average around 2.2 children, but high fertility is now concentrated in Africa and the Middle East, a trend that has, among other things, made the Catholic Church the fastest-growing religious community. Almost everywhere else, birth rates keep falling, and most of the world's population already lives in countries where too few children are born to keep the population stable. Prof. Münz expects the world's population to peak at around 10.5 billion by 2060, followed by a steep decline.

Birth rates are lowest in the most developed regions, and one reason lies in how the role of children has changed. In the past, children were a form of security, as they would look after their parents in old age. Today, pension systems largely fulfil that function. The economic incentive to have children has weakened, and in some respects children may even be seen as a kind of luxury. For individuals, the incentive may be small, but for society as a whole the next generation remains essential. Nowhere is this tension more visible than in China and Europe, where birth rates are very low.

While fewer children are born, people are living longer. Life expectancy has reached record levels, particularly in the European Union and East Asia, with women still living considerably longer than men. Perhaps surprisingly, Prof. Münz noted, a long life expectancy is only loosely linked to how much a country spends on healthcare, as other factors play a more decisive role. Together, these trends have brought China and Europe to a turning point at which more people now die each year than are born. The result is an ageing society and a shrinking native population.

Prof. Rainer Münz, former Adviser on Migration and Demography to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, during his presentation on population trends in Europe and East Asia

From emigration to immigration

For centuries, Europe was a continent that sent its people out into the world. Millions of Europeans emigrated to North America, Australia and elsewhere in search of land, work and a better life. Over the past decades, this movement has reversed, and Europe has become a destination, importing labour to sustain its economies. Western Europe in particular has benefited from migration, while many Central European countries are losing citizens who move abroad, often to other parts of the EU. Without migration, Prof. Münz noted, the population of the European Union would already be shrinking. Yet the public debate on migration in Europe is driven less by these numbers than by perception. As Prof. Münz explained, what many people see as the problem is not migration as such, but the presence of visible minorities, and in the European debate this concern focuses above all on Muslim immigration. It is this perception, rather than the demographic facts, that often shapes the tone of the political discussion.

East Asia faces the same demographic pressures but has responded in different ways. In China, migration takes place mainly within the country's own borders, as people move from one region to another rather than arriving from abroad. In Japan, whose population is among the oldest in the world, more and more people continue to work beyond retirement age, which helps to cushion the effects of a shrinking workforce.

What works?

Societies are responding to demographic change in several ways: by adapting benefits and services, through pro-natalist family policies, by raising the retirement age, and through automation and immigration. Prof. Münz examined whether these approaches are effective and sustainable, and what Europe and East Asia can learn from each other. The discussion with guests added further perspectives. Participants recalled that, not long ago, falling birth rates were widely seen as a positive development and concerns about overpopulation dominated the debate. That discussion has since almost completely disappeared, even though a smaller world population could also help ease some of the great global challenges. The conversation also turned to the question of timing, and to policies that encourage people to have children earlier. Artificial intelligence was also raised as a possible way of addressing the problems that come with population decline. Prof. Münz cautioned, however, that the wealth generated by AI is currently highly concentrated.

Whether through family policy, longer working lives, new technologies or migration, there is no single measure that will reverse the trend on its own. Europe and East Asia will continue to grow older, and in many places their populations will continue to shrink. What remains open is how wisely both regions will respond to this change, and there is a good deal each of them could learn from the other.

The discussion was held under the Chatham House Rule.