U.S.-ChinaSummitCouldSeeBeijingStepUpinIranMediation,AnalystSays

A potential visit to China by U.S. President Donald Trump could yield significant developments regarding Middle East diplomacy and Washington’s stance on the Taiwan question, according to Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs columnist at the Financial Times.

Speaking on May 7 local time at the second Caixin London Atlantic Dialogue, Rachman highlighted that a key area to watch is whether a U.S.-China summit results in Beijing taking on a larger role in mediating the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

Rachman noted that China, as a major importer of oil and natural gas, would be severely impacted by rising global energy prices. Furthermore, Pakistan, which the U.S. currently favors as a mediating nation, maintains close diplomatic ties with Beijing.

Addressing whether a prospective meeting between Trump and Chinese leadership in Beijing could establish a floor to stabilize deteriorating bilateral relations for the remainder of Trump’s term, Rachman expressed skepticism. The U.S. president’s rhetoric and actions are frequently swayed by personal emotions and media headlines, Rachman said, adding that Trump possesses very strong instincts but is not accustomed to strategic thinking.

Beyond potential geopolitical negotiations, resource control remains a critical point of friction. Over the past year, the most pivotal development in U.S.-China relations was Beijing’s implementation of export controls on rare-earth minerals — a move Washington has yet to successfully counter, Rachman said.

Rachman said that this has become a knot in the Washington circle. U.S. officials have spent significant time strategizing how to build alternative rare-earth supply networks, even resorting to aggressive, extortion-like tactics with countries such as Zambia, he said. Consequently, rare earths have emerged as a tangible driver of U.S. foreign policy.

On the subject of Taiwan, Rachman said that if Trump were to revise the long-standing U.S. posture on the island following a visit to Beijing, it would represent a huge diplomatic victory for China.

However, he cautioned that it would be highly difficult for the current U.S. administration to fundamentally alter its Taiwan policy. The trajectory of cross-Strait relations will also heavily depend on the outcomes of local elections in Taiwan in the coming years, he added.