China Provinces Set Cautious 2026 Growth Targets

By Fan Qianchan

China’s provincial governments are starting a new five-year planning cycle on a cautious note, with most maintaining or lowering their economic growth targets for 2026 compared with last year, signaling continued economic headwinds.

As of Saturday, 22 of the Chinese mainland’s 31 provincial-level regions had announced their economic growth targets for this year, according to Caixin calculations.

Seven kept their targets unchanged and 14 trimmed them from 2025 levels, while Jiangxi was the only province to raise its target after outperforming in 2025.

With Guangdong and Zhejiang, two of the country’s largest provincial economies, opting to set growth targets as ranges, some analysts have suggested the central government may take a similar approach.

Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, told Caixin that current provincial targets increase the likelihood Beijing will set this year’s national growth goal at a range of 4.5% to 5%, with a single target of around 4.5% seen as a secondary option.

China is expected to announce its full-year GDP growth target at the annual meeting of its top legislature in March.

The country’s economy expanded 5% last year, hitting the government’s “around 5%” target. The expansion was buoyed by a record trade surplus that helped offset weak domestic demand and a persistent property slump weighing on investment.

caixinglobal.com is the English-language online news portal of Chinese financial and business news media group Caixin. Global Neighbours is authorized to reprint this article.

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