Uzbekistan Pivots: Courting Global Capital to Remake Its Economy
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, architect of Uzbekistan’s sweeping economic reforms, is looking to transform this doubly landlocked Central Asian nation into an investment hub, leveraging its strategic location and nascent market-oriented policies.
“For us, investment is not just a financial resource. It also encompasses technology, knowledge, qualified personnel and integration into the international production chain – in other words, real development,” Mirziyoyev declared at the Fourth Tashkent International Investment Forum held June 10-12. Addressing over 3,000 international guests, he emphasized an investment environment that “becomes a strong foundation for upholding human dignity and contributing to societal development” beyond mere profit generation.
Some 3,000 people from around the world attended the forum in Tashkent. Photo: Xu Heqian/Caixin
The eight-year period since Mirziyoyev assumed office in late 2016 has been the focal point of this transformation. From 2017 to 2023, the GDP of this nation of 37 million grew from $86.14 billion to $103.01 billion, with an average annual growth rate hovering around 5.7% to 6%. Mirziyoyev recently ratcheted up ambitions, targeting a GDP of $200 billion by 2030 — a $40 billion increase from the country’s 2030 Strategy goal unveiled just last September, signaling potent government confidence.
Per capita GDP is projected to rise from $2,190.6 in 2017 to an estimated $3,169.5 in 2024 by the World Bank, with Tashkent aiming to surpass $4,000 by 2030, thereby joining the ranks of upper-middle-income countries.
Visitors check out a scale model of the New Tashkent city project. Photo: Xu Heqian/Caixin
Opening doors and easing rules
A cornerstone of this strategy is attracting foreign capital. “The volume of trade with our neighbors has increased by more than 3.5 times in eight years, reaching almost $13 billion,” Mirziyoyev noted, highlighting progress on critical infrastructure, including the recently initiated China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway.
To woo investors, Uzbekistan plans to introduce a national treatment regime, ensuring foreign investors parity with local firms, and a one-stop shop for government services. Privatization is also high on the agenda. A state investment fund, consolidating stakes in 18 major enterprises and banks worth nearly $2 billion, has been established, with U.S. asset manager Franklin Templeton tapped to manage it. “Next year, the fund will launch its international IPO,” the president announced.
An Uzbek auto plant showcases new-energy vehicles produced in partnership with Chinese carmaker BYD. Photo: Xu Heqian/Caixin
Several international airports, including those in Samarkand and Bukhara, have already been transferred to private operators via public-private partnerships (PPPs). South Korea’s Incheon International Airport Corporation is managing the Urgench airport, with tenders for four more airports slated for 2026.
World Trade Organization accession is another key objective, targeted for 2026, Mirziyoyev stated, acknowledging the need to amend numerous laws and standards. His detailed, 40-minute address at the forum delved into specific timelines and partnerships, a departure from typical summit rhetoric.
A map shows the special economic zones being established across Uzbekistan. Photo: Xu Heqian/Caixin
Sectoral ambitions are equally bold: IT product exports are to increase fivefold from a projected $1 billion in 2025 to $5 billion by 2030. The financial sector is undergoing comprehensive reform with International Monetary Fund and World Bank involvement. Untapped mineral wealth — including tungsten, lithium and graphite — is estimated at $3 trillion. In renewables, building on nearly $6 billion in recent foreign direct investment, Uzbekistan aims to more than double its green energy share to 54%, leveraging its abundant sunshine.
The development drive is physically manifest in New Tashkent, a planned 200-square-kilometer city east of the current capital, designed to accommodate up to 2.5 million people. Adjacent, an Olympic City built by China CAMC Engineering is nearly ready to host the Asian Youth Games in September 2025.
New construction projects are seen on the outskirts of Tashkent. Photo: Xu Heqian/Caixin
“Uzbekistan’s Deng Xiaoping”
The eight years repeatedly referenced marks Mirziyoyev’s presidency. The 67-year-old leader, reelected in 2021 and again in 2023 under a revised constitution, could potentially govern until 2030 and beyond. His tenure is widely viewed as a decisive break from past insularity.
“Although we don’t use the term ‘reform and opening up,’ many Chinese in Uzbekistan compare Mirziyoyev to ‘Uzbekistan’s Deng Xiaoping,’” said Gulya, who helps run her family’s B.A. Holding Group after 12 years of study in China.
A significant milestone was the 2017 currency reform, which abolished a multi-tiered, state-controlled exchange rate system. The Uzbek som shifted overnight from an artificially high 4,210 per U.S. dollar to a market-reflective 8,100; it now trades around 12,700. Foreign direct investment inflows, while fluctuating, hit $2.16 billion in 2023, with current FDI at roughly 2.3% of GDP, suggesting ample room for growth.
Visa liberalization has also been aggressively pursued. Effective June 1, 2025, a mutual 30-day visa-free regime with China commenced, extending such access to 66 countries. This openness, the most extensive in Central Asia, attracted an estimated 130,000 Russians in 2022 following the Ukraine conflict.
Forging a common Central Asian space
Diplomatically, Mirziyoyev moved swiftly to mend frayed ties with neighbors. In 2017, he initiated the Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia, a unique regional dialogue platform. Sadyk Safayev, First Deputy Chairman of Uzbekistan’s Senate, described the pre-2016 regional landscape as fraught with “unhealthy competition” and unresolved border issues. Mirziyoyev’s approach, he said, is based on Central Asia being “a single space with a common destiny.”
This renewed regionalism was evident at the investment forum, attended by prime ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan, alongside European leaders. Odile Renaud-Basso, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which has invested €5.5 billion in Uzbekistan, and Dilma Rousseff, president of the New Development Bank, were also present. The New Development Bank plans joint projects up to $5 billion with Uzbekistan.
A notable theme was an emerging East-West corridor independent of traditional Russian influence. The Caspian Green Energy Corridor — a pact between Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to export green electricity to Europe — exemplifies this. Feasibility studies with the Asian Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank began in April 2025.
Yet, Tashkent maintains a pragmatic balancing act. While courting Western investment, Uzbekistan has not joined sanctions against Russia. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak attended the summit, discussing energy cooperation. Simultaneously, Uzbekistan hosted Ukrainian children for psychological rehabilitation, a humanitarian gesture managed with diplomatic finesse.
Ninety-seven Ukrainian youths pose for a photo during their trip to Uzbekistan for a recreational and recuperative stay that aims to help them deal with the trauma of war. Photo: Embassy of Ukraine in Uzbekistan/social media
Forging connectivity in all directions
As a doubly landlocked nation nearly 3,000 kilometers from the nearest seaport, connectivity is paramount. The CKU railway project, long stalled, saw an intergovernmental agreement signed in June 2024. This 523-kilometer line, running from Kashgar, China, through mountainous Kyrgyzstan to Andijan, Uzbekistan, will shorten China-to-Europe cargo routes by 900 kilometers, saving seven to eight days. Expected to take six years to build, it will feature both standard and broad-gauge tracks.
The CKU railway is envisioned as a key segment of the Middle Corridor linking Asia and Europe, integrating with the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Uzbekistan’s participation in this route hinges on enhanced ties with Kazakhstan and its Caspian port infrastructure.
Central Asia is rapidly becoming a vital logistics nexus. In 2024, cargo transit to China via the region topped 211,000 twenty-foot equivalent units, up 12%. China’s trade with Central Asia hit a record $95 billion in 2024, nearly 40% of the region’s total.
The Afghan angle
A striking feature of Uzbekistan’s strategy is its persistent engagement with Afghanistan. Mirziyoyev met with Haji Nooruddin Azizi, the Taliban interim government’s acting minister of industry and trade, discussing projects like a Trans-Afghan railway. This occurred as a U.S.-Uzbekistan business summit took place next door, where First Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev pitched Uzbekistan’s young demographic, mineral wealth and 39 free economic zones to American investors.
Mirziyoyev has long advocated integrating Afghanistan into regional development. “Afghanistan is an integral part of Central Asia” that is connected by common rivers, nature, culture and historical past, he stated at a recent China-Central Asia summit, proposing a high-level working group on Afghan issues. Safayev articulated this vision: “Afghanistan should be viewed not so much as a source of threats, but as a source of opportunities for the entire region … If stability is established there and the trans-Afghan transport corridor is implemented, Uzbekistan’s path to world markets will be reduced by three to four times.”
Uzbekistan’s growing international standing is reflected in its election to key United Nations bodies and its selection to host the U.N. Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization General Conference in Samarkand in late 2025 — the first time in 40 years the event will be held outside Paris.
As Mirziyoyev concluded his forum address, he broadened his scope from specific projects like the CKU railway to a grander vision: “We propose promoting the concept of an ‘integrated region for investment and trade’ in Central Asia … By working together, we can transform Central Asia into a place of peace and prosperity.”
Contact editor Lu Zhenhua (zhenhualu@caixin.com)
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