Global Oil Demand to Keep Rising for Another 15 Years, Chinese Report Says
By Luo Guoping
A research unit under China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) has significantly pushed back its forecast for peak global oil demand by a decade to 2040, citing stronger-than-expected consumption and a rising focus on energy security.
According to its newly released “World and China Energy Outlook 2060,” the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI) now expects oil demand to reach a high of 4.8 billion tons in 2040 — a 5.2% increase over last year’s forecast and ten years later than previously projected.
Forecasts for global natural gas demand were similarly pushed back by five to eight years, with peak consumption expected between 2040 and 2045. The revised volume estimate rose 11% to roughly 5 trillion cubic meters.
“The future of energy development has seen major changes,” said Wu Mouyuan, the institute’s deputy director. Wu cited shifting geopolitics and accelerating innovation, saying such trends have raised energy market volatility and compelled nations to place a greater emphasis on supply security — even if that means slowing their energy transitions.
The updated outlook signals a broader reassessment of fossil fuels’ role in the global energy mix. It echoes revisions by other agencies, including the International Energy Agency, that now anticipate longer-lasting demand amid continued growth in developing markets and heightened global concern over energy resilience.
The institute highlighted three drivers behind oil demand’s endurance: expanding consumption in emerging economies, consistent demand for petrochemical and aviation fuel, and a slowdown in the adoption of electric vehicles worldwide.
In a separate report released in November 2025, the IEA revised its own estimate for peak oil demand to 2050, projecting daily consumption to reach 113 million barrels.
As for China, the institute expects China’s oil demand to level off between 2025 and 2030. Wang Zhuwei, director of oil trading analysis at S&P Global Energy, said that demand for liquid fuels is likely to peak in 2027 and remain at a high plateau for five to 10 years.
China’s natural gas consumption is projected to peak between 2035 and 2040, reaching 620 billion to 650 billion cubic meters. Gas is expected to gradually replace coal in power generation and support a modernized energy system.
Worldwide, total energy demand is expected to rise 15% from 2025 to 2035, reaching 17.6 billion tons of oil equivalent. The share of fossil fuels is projected to fall to 70% from the current 80%, yet absolute demand for oil and gas is still expected to grow as coal use declines.
China’s total energy demand is forecast to peak around 2035 at 5 billion tons of oil equivalent. By then, the nation’s energy mix will consist of a “tripod” structure — coal, oil and gas, and non-fossil sources — with oil and gas maintaining a combined share above 25%.
“China is entering a new phase in building a modern oil and gas sector,” Wu said, adding that this includes low-carbon fossil energy as well as green alternatives such as hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and biofuels.
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