Commentary: How Chinese Cities Are Turning the Climate Crisis Into Opportunity
By Wen Hua, Lu Lu and Zhou Weiqi
Climate change is no longer a distant threat. In late October, Storm Dana’s flooding claimed 217 lives in Valencia, Spain. This summer, China experienced its hottest period since comprehensive meteorological records began in 1961, with numerous heat stroke patients filling intensive care units in cities including Shanghai and Hangzhou, where temperatures soared.
The United Nations Environment Programme’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report warns that without more aggressive action, global temperatures could rise by 3.1 degrees Celsius by century’s end, intensifying extreme weather events.
Cities, as centers of population and economic activity, are the frontline in climate risk response. The World Resources Institute (WRI) has developed a new statistical modeling approach, integrating nine global climate models to analyze 14 temperature and precipitation-related risk indicators across nearly 1,000 major cities under 1.5 degrees and 3 degrees Celsius warming scenarios. The findings indicate that East Asian cities, particularly in China, face more severe extreme weather threats than their European and North American counterparts.
The study, examining 158 Chinese cities, projects longer, hotter summers. Under a 3 degrees Celsius warming scenario, these cities could see a 70% increase in high-temperature days (defined as daily highs of 35 degrees Celsius or above) compared to a 1.5 degrees Celsius scenario. The Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions are expected to surpass the Chengdu-Chongqing area for the longest heat waves. Even traditional summer retreats like northern cities Xining, Hohhot and Yinchuan could face heat waves lasting over 17 days.
This poses significant challenges for summer cooling infrastructure, from individual air conditioning units to government investments in energy infrastructure and building efficiency. Moreover, 72% of Chinese cities face simultaneous increases in heat waves and flood risks, particularly in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan and Hebei provinces.
The climate crisis also threatens to increase landslides and vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever. Under a 3 degrees Celsius scenario, Chinese cities face 13% higher rainfall-induced landslide risks compared with 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. The economically vital Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions could see high-risk landslide days increase by 8% and 14%, respectively. Vector-borne disease transmission periods could lengthen significantly in 103 Chinese cities, with 29 cities in central, western and northeastern regions seeing over 50% increases.
China’s vulnerability to natural disasters is already evident. In the first three quarters of 2024, floods and geological disasters affected 50.38 million people, caused 703 deaths or disappearances, and resulted in direct economic losses of 235.94 billion yuan ($32.6 billion).
As global temperatures continue to rise, extreme weather events are expected to become more frequent and persistent, posing increasingly severe challenges to urban areas. The response requires a coordinated approach that combines both climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, addressing both greenhouse gas emissions reduction and helping developing nations tackle life-threatening climate impacts.
Major economies must demonstrate greater leadership by achieving substantial emissions reductions before 2030 and aligning global greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 with pathways consistent with 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius warming scenarios.
At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, China unveiled its 2025-2027 action plan for climate change adaptation, emphasizing early warning systems and global risk assessment capabilities. With cities accounting for 80% of China’s carbon emissions, local governments are piloting carbon reduction initiatives. A WRI partnership in Shenzhen demonstrated that near-zero carbon communities could achieve 45% emissions reductions while maintaining living standards through distributed solar power, improved building efficiency and low-carbon lifestyles.
Climate-resilient infrastructure investment is proving economically viable. WRI studies suggest every 1 yuan invested in resilient infrastructure could yield 2 to 20 yuan in returns over 30 years. Projects like “sponge cities,” which incorporate nature-based solutions such as sunken green spaces and rain gardens, demonstrate how cities can simultaneously address climate adaptation and environmental protection.
The challenge now is implementation. While G20 countries account for nearly 80% of greenhouse gas emissions, none are reducing emissions fast enough to meet net-zero targets. As extreme weather events intensify, cities must balance emission reductions with adaptation measures, transforming climate challenges into opportunities for sustainable development.
Wen Hua is the director of the Sustainable Cities Program at WRI China’s Sustainable Transition Center. Lu Lu is a researcher at WRI’s Sustainable Cities Program. Zhou Weiqi is a data analyst at WRI China.
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