China to Be Top National Market for Aircraft in the Coming Two Decades, Boeing Predicts
By Wang Xintong and Zou Xiaotong
China is expected to be the largest national market for commercial airplane deliveries through 2043, Boeing Co. said, as the U.S. company resumed deliveries of its cash-cow 737 Max jets to Chinese airlines after a two-month pause.
Boeing predicts 43,975 new commercial airplanes will be delivered globally over the next 20 years, according to its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook released Friday. That’s up from last year’s forecast of 42,595 aircraft.
The manufacturer raised its forecast because it believes that air travel will have fully recovered from its pandemic-era slump by then, with demand even surpassing pre-pandemic levels, according to a press release about the Outlook.
China is expected to purchase 8,830 aircraft in the next 20 years, accounting for 20% of global deliveries and the most of any country, the outlook report said. That’s in line with last year’s forecast for the Asian giant.
China’s demand trails only Boeing’s predictions for Eurasia and North America, where deliveries are expected to reach 9,785 and 8,985 respectively by 2043, the report said.
“The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges,” Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of commercial sales and marketing, said in the press release.
The global aviation industry is facing a reduction in skilled labor due to the Covid pandemic, as well as shortages of raw materials such as titanium and steel as a result of the Russia- Ukraine war. This has led to longer delivery times and higher costs for many aviation manufacturers.
Several civil aviation industry sources told Caixin that the supply chain problems could last until 2025 or even 2026.
Boeing has slowed production amid concerns about its manufacturing safety standards tied to the Alaska Air 737 Max door blowout in January. The manufacturer delivered 175 planes to customers worldwide in the first half of 2024, 91 fewer than in the same period last year, data from its website showed.
In June, Boeing delivered a 737 Max to Chinese budget carrier 9 Air, the data showed. It was the first delivery of this type of jet by the U.S. company to a Chinese airline since April.
On Saturday, Xiamen Airlines Co. Ltd. also took delivery of a 737-8 from Boeing, Aviation Week reported.
A Boeing spokesperson on Wednesday confirmed to Caixin the resumption of the China 737 Max deliveries, without providing further details.
The resumption is a much-needed boost for the beleaguered Boeing and its strained finances. The green light comes after a roughly two-month pause imposed by aviation regulators in China to review additional information about batteries used in cockpit voice recorders in Boeing’s planes.
Reopening the Chinese market to Boeing’s top-selling aircraft will help alleviate some of the pressure on the company’s finances. The planemaker has said it expected to burn through $3.9 billion or more in the second quarter, with the China delivery halt a contributing factor.
Bloomberg contributed to this story.
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