Caixin Summit: Expert Calls for New ‘Guardrails’ to Stabilize China-U.S. Relations
By Hou Wuting and Han Wei
China and the United States need “guardrails” in their bilateral relations, said Yan Xuetong, a leading foreign policy expert, emphasizing the importance of forming communication channels to reduce misunderstandings and avert potentially catastrophic consequences.
“Trump’s victory will heighten uncertainty, and China may need new strategies to manage it,” Yan, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, said at the 15th Caixin Summit in Beijing on last Friday.
A Trump re-election will probably increase pressure on Japan, Europe and Ukraine and is expected to maintain economic pressure on China, with additional tariffs probably unavoidable, Yan added.
The president-elect has vowed to impose a batch of trade measures aimed at China, including a 60% tariff on all U.S. imports from China while revoking its most-favored-nation status.
Although what steps Trump will take in his new term is uncertain, his policy direction is clear, Yan said, emphasizing that protectionism has become a central principle in U.S. foreign economic relations and is likely to remain a global trend. Trump’s victory, he added, is no mere coincidence but a reflection of the broader rise of populism worldwide.
Yan said economic ties have a limited impact on strategic relations between major powers. For example, while China-Russia trade is modest compared with China-U.S. trade, the strategic partnership between China and Russia is stronger. Even if Trump pursues protectionist policies, economic ties between China and America will persist, albeit within a new competitive framework, as both countries rely on each other’s markets, he said.
For China and the U.S., close economic and trade ties, along with shared interests, also imply challenges, competition and potential conflict, Yan said. As a result, these economic and trade links may sometimes make relations between the two countries more difficult.
Trump does not want China’s economic growth to surpass that of America. So while he may not deliberately suppress China, he will certainly take steps to boost the U.S. economy, protect the American market and implement protectionist policies, he added.
To stabilize the U.S.-China relations, Yan called for more “guardrails” — mechanisms that can guide interactions and prevent conflicts. Currently, there is no such mechanism, making it necessary to establish more channels for communication to set rules for their interactions through dialogue, he said.
Before Trump took office in 2017, the two countries had around 70 official channels for consultations. During Trump’s first term, that dropped to zero, only to be restored to about 20 under President Biden, according to Yan.
It is unclear whether dialogue channels between the U.S. and China will expand or contract when Trump returns to office, says Yan, but he stresses the importance of maintaining open lines of communication to reduce misunderstandings.
Contact reporter Han Wei (weihan@caixin.com)
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